Introduction
This Geopolitical Report Tearline briefing summarizes key global events collected and mapped on January 31st, 2025, for the Geopolitical Report. It is intended to provide readers with a concise overview of significant geopolitical developments, emerging threats, and key actors to watch.
Major Themes
- Shifting Military Presence and Alliances: France has completed its military withdrawal from Chad, signifying a realignment of its military strategy in Africa. This highlights changing power dynamics and the potential for increased regional instability as other nations and groups vie for influence. Also, the withdrawal of North Korean soldiers from the front lines in Kursk due to heavy losses highlights the complexities and vulnerabilities of proxy conflicts.
- Escalating Regional Conflicts: Multiple regions are experiencing intensified conflict. In Syria, attacks by Turkish forces, the SDF, and US airstrikes indicate a complex and volatile environment. In Myanmar, fighting between the junta forces and various insurgent groups continues to escalate. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine also persists, with both sides inflicting casualties and utilizing drone warfare. In Sudan, the military is making gains against the RSF while facing setbacks in other areas. These conflicts show the continued use of military force and the risks of regional destabilization.
- Terrorism and Insurgency: Terrorist activities remain a serious concern. Maoist rebels were arrested in India, while Turkish forces "neutralized" PKK terrorists in Iraq and Syria. In Nigeria, associates of a Chadian terrorist were arrested. These incidents highlight the persistent threat of terrorist groups and the international reach of their operations.
- Civil Unrest and Political Instability: Protests and civil unrest continue to be a significant factor in several countries. Egyptians protested Trump's plan for Gazan relocation. Large protests took place in Germany against cooperation with the far-right. Protests related to corruption are ongoing in Serbia. In the Philippines, protests are calling for the impeachment of the Vice President. These events show widespread discontent and the potential for political shifts.
- Humanitarian Crises and Displacement: The reopening of the Rafah crossing is a sign of potential relief to a humanitarian crisis, but also underscores the severity of the situation in Gaza. The discovery of a migrant boat off St. Kitts and Nevis with deceased individuals points to the dangers faced by migrants seeking better lives. These events point to the continued suffering of vulnerable populations and the challenges associated with addressing humanitarian needs.
- Increased Use of Drones: Drones are playing an increasing role in conflicts. The drone attacks in Ukraine and Syria and the use of drones in the fighting near the Myanmar-India border illustrate the evolution of warfare tactics in current conflicts.
Key Areas of Interest
- The Gaza Strip: The reopening of the Rafah crossing and the release of hostages are crucial developments that will affect the region's future. Proposed relocation plans, which are facing strong local opposition, are also complicating the situation.
- Myanmar: The military junta's extension of the state of emergency coupled with increased fighting between the military and insurgent groups signal ongoing instability and conflict in Myanmar.
- Syria: The ongoing and overlapping conflicts involving Turkish forces, the SDF, the Syrian regime, and US airstrikes against terrorist groups create a complex situation with implications for regional security in Syria.
- Ukraine: The continuous drone and missile attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces, coupled with the reported withdrawal of North Korean soldiers, underscore the volatility and unpredictable nature of the war.
- Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): The rapid advance of the M23 rebels and their alleged looting of election facilities point to escalating conflict in the region. The surrender of Congolese troops adds further uncertainty to the country's stability.
