Introduction
This Geopolitical Report Tearline briefing summarizes key global events collected and mapped on February 19th, 2025, for the Geopolitical Report. It is intended to provide readers with a concise overview of significant geopolitical developments, emerging threats, and key actors to watch.
Major Themes
- Great Power Competition Intensifies: The U.S.-China rivalry continues to dominate strategic calculations, with Beijing expanding gray zone activities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, while Washington maintains sanctions pressure on Russia and navigates complex diplomacy in the Middle East. Russia’s sustained offensive in Ukraine and alignment with Iran and North Korea further complicate the global security architecture.
- Fragmentation of Multilateralism: Traditional alliances like NATO face strain as member states prioritize national interests, exemplified by the ongoing feuds surrounding the US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine and Turkey’s unilateral operations in northern Iraq. Meanwhile, ad hoc coalitions such as the CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) deepen military and economic ties, challenging US-led institutions.
- Proliferation of Hybrid Warfare: Non-kinetic tactics—cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion—are increasingly employed by state and non-state actors to destabilize adversaries without triggering direct conflict. Recent incidents include Chinese helicopter maneuvers near Philippine aircraft and Russian cyber operations against Ukrainian infrastructure.
