Introduction
This analytical briefing summarizes key global events collected and mapped from March 15th, 2025, through March 21st, 2025, for the Geopolitical Report. It is intended to provide readers with a concise overview of significant geopolitical developments, emerging threats, and key actors to watch.
Major Themes
- Intensification of Existing Conflicts: Many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine, witnessed significant escalations in violence, including increased airstrikes, ground operations, and drone attacks. The conflict between Israel and Hamas saw a resumption of intense fighting after a period of relative calm, while the war in Ukraine continued with relentless drone and missile strikes from Russia and claims of significant Russian troop losses.
- Persistent Threat of Non-State Actors: Terrorist and insurgent groups, including Hamas, Al-Shabab, ISIS, the Arakan Army, and Maoist rebels in India, remained active and posed significant security challenges to state authorities and civilian populations. These groups employed various tactics, including bombings, ambushes, and territorial seizures, highlighting their continued operational capabilities.
- Growing Internal Political Instability and Power Struggles: Events in China, Israel, and South Sudan point towards internal political tensions and power struggles impacting security. China's ongoing military purges suggest high-level issues within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). In Israel, the government's decision to fire the head of Shin Bet amidst ongoing protests underscores deep political divisions. South Sudan witnessed escalating violence and a withdrawal of the SPLM-IO from security mechanisms, indicating a potential relapse into a wider conflict.
- Expansion of Gray Zone Activities: The events highlight increasing instances of activities that fall short of conventional warfare but carry significant geopolitical implications. These include cyberattacks, such as the one targeting Ascom in Switzerland and DHR Health in the US, espionage accusations leading to arrests and diplomatic tensions, and information warfare tactics, such as the rumors of the Quran burning in India leading to clashes.
- Humanitarian Crises and Civilian Impact: The reported events consistently underscore the severe humanitarian consequences of ongoing conflicts and instability. Civilian casualties from airstrikes, shelling, and terrorist attacks were reported in Gaza, Ukraine, Myanmar, Syria, and Nigeria. Displacement of populations due to fighting was noted in Myanmar and South Sudan. The killing of UNRWA staff in Gaza further highlights the dangers faced by humanitarian workers in conflict zones.
