Who is Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K)?

Overview

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K or IS-K) is a regional affiliate of the Islamic State (IS) operating primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Established in 2015, IS-K adheres to a Salafi-jihadist ideology and seeks to establish a caliphate across South and Central Asia under a strict interpretation of Islamic law. The group has emerged as one of the deadliest terrorist organizations in the region, responsible for numerous high-profile attacks against civilians, government targets, and rival militant groups.

IS-K's operational area, known as "Khorasan," historically encompasses parts of modern-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian republics. The group's transnational nature and its ability to recruit from various ethnic and national backgrounds have contributed to its resilience and adaptability in the face of counterterrorism efforts.

History

IS-K's formation can be traced to the following key events:

• Origins (2014-2015): The group emerged in 2014 with the defection of fighters from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), al-Qaeda, and the Afghan Taliban. In January 2015, ISIS officially announced the formation of its Khorasan province, appointing Hafiz Saeed Khan as its first emir.
• Early expansion (2015-2018): IS-K rapidly grew its presence in eastern Afghanistan, particularly in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. The group attracted fighters from various militant organizations, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Lashkar-e-Taiba.
• Territorial control and setbacks (2018-2020): At its peak in 2018, IS-K controlled significant territory in eastern Afghanistan and had an estimated several thousand fighters. However, sustained military pressure from Afghan, US, and Taliban forces led to significant losses in manpower and territory.
• Resurgence and adaptation (2020-present): Despite territorial losses, IS-K has demonstrated remarkable resilience. The group has shifted its focus to high-profile attacks in urban areas and expanded its recruitment efforts across the region.

Key Characteristics

• Ideology: IS-K adheres to a strict Salafi-jihadist ideology, rejecting both Western influence and more moderate interpretations of Islam.
• Transnational focus: While primarily active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, IS-K's ambitions extend across the broader Khorasan region, including parts of Central Asia and Iran.
• Anti-Shia stance: The group is known for its extreme sectarian violence, particularly targeting Shia Muslims and other religious minorities.
• Recruitment strategy: IS-K has successfully recruited from various militant groups and ethnic backgrounds, including disaffected Taliban members and foreign fighters.
• Adaptability: The group has shown a remarkable ability to survive leadership decapitation and territorial losses, adjusting its tactics and organizational structure in response to changing circumstances.
• Media and propaganda: IS-K has developed sophisticated media capabilities, leveraging IS's global brand to amplify its message and attract recruits.

Key People/Actors

• Hafiz Saeed Khan: The first emir of IS-K, a former TTP commander who played a crucial role in establishing the group's initial structure and recruitment networks.
• Sheikh Maqbool: An early prominent figure who served as the group's spokesman.
• Abdul Rauf Khadim: Appointed as IS-K's first deputy emir, he was a former Taliban commander who facilitated the group's early growth.
• Sanaullah Ghafari (aka Shahab al-Muhajir): Appointed as IS-K's emir in June 2020, he previously served as a mid-level commander in the Haqqani Network and was involved in planning urban attacks.

Key Capabilities and Tactics

• Guerrilla warfare: IS-K excels in hit-and-run tactics and ambushes, exploiting difficult terrain in rural and mountainous areas.
• Urban terrorism: The group has demonstrated a capacity for complex, high-profile attacks in urban centers, particularly in Kabul.
• Suicide bombings: IS-K frequently employs suicide bombers, including women and children, to target civilian and military objectives.
• Targeted assassinations: The group has conducted campaigns of targeted killings against government officials, security personnel, and rival militant leaders.
• Recruitment and radicalization: IS-K has developed effective networks for recruiting and radicalizing individuals across the region, including through social media and local religious institutions.
• Financial resources: The group generates funds through various illicit activities, including extortion, kidnapping for ransom, and involvement in the narcotics trade.
• Cross-border operations: IS-K has demonstrated the ability to plan and execute attacks across national borders, particularly between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• Technological innovation: Recent reports indicate that IS-K has been experimenting with satellite communications and explosive-laden commercial drones.

Outlook

As of early 2025, IS-K remains a significant threat to regional stability and international security:

• Persistent threat: Despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts, IS-K continues to demonstrate resilience and the ability to carry out high-profile attacks.
• Expanding operational reach: The group has shown a determination to expand its influence beyond its core territories in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as evidenced by the March 2024 attack in Moscow.
• Exploitation of regional instability: IS-K has benefited from the changing security landscape in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban's takeover, finding a more permissive operating environment.
• Recruitment potential: The region's socioeconomic challenges and political grievances provide IS-K with a pool of potential recruits, particularly among disaffected youth.
• International concern: The group's recent high-profile attacks and apparent expansion have raised concerns about its potential to threaten Western interests, including the possibility of attacks in Europe and North America.
• Counterterrorism challenges: The lack of sustained international counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, combined with the Taliban's limited resources and focus on consolidating power, may provide IS-K with opportunities to strengthen its position.
• Regional implications: IS-K's activities continue to strain relations between countries in the region, particularly regarding cross-border security cooperation and the movement of militants.
• Ideological competition: The group's extreme ideology and tactics may limit its broader appeal, particularly in competition with more established militant groups like the Taliban.
• Adaptability and resilience: IS-K has consistently demonstrated an ability to adapt to changing circumstances and survive leadership losses, suggesting that purely military approaches to countering the group may be insufficient.
• Humanitarian impact: Ongoing IS-K attacks contribute to the region's humanitarian crisis, displacing populations and exacerbating food insecurity and economic instability.

Addressing the threat posed by IS-K will require a comprehensive approach that combines military action with efforts to address underlying socioeconomic grievances, improve governance, and enhance regional cooperation. The international community's response, including intelligence sharing and support for local counterterrorism efforts, will play a crucial role in shaping the group's future trajectory. However, given IS-K's demonstrated resilience and adaptability, it is likely to remain a significant security challenge in the region, and internationally, for the foreseeable future.